Champions League Last 16: Key Takeaways & Second Leg Predictions

Santiago Bernabéu Stadium Before Champions League Game

An exciting week of action in the Champions League saw all remaining 16 teams in action. As we recap the first leg matches we will also look at how each contest is poised ahead of their return leg, to be played across Tuesday 11th and Wednesday 12th March.

Image: ferhat_culfaz via flickr

Club Brugge 1-3 Aston Villa

Aston Villa v Club Brugge Qualification Betting

Having impressively eliminated Atalanta 5-2 on aggregate in the knockout phase play-offs, this had the potential to be a tough match for Villa. It largely proved the case too but good fortune, plus a moment of magical defending from Tyrone Mings, handed Villa a two-goal advantage heading into the second leg.

Brugge were unlucky not to take the lead with the scoreline at 1-1 but spurned a couple of big chances. At this point, disaster struck as the hosts conceded an unfortunate own goal and an incredibly needless penalty. This late collapse hands Villa a significant advantage they are unlikely to spurn.

Real Madrid 2-1 Atletico Madrid

Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid Qualification Betting

There was not much in the way of big chances in this match, as both teams set up in a quite conservative fashion, but we were still treated to three goals of the highest quality. The return leg is likely to be a cagey affair as the first goal will be so crucial. If Atletico can strike first, the tie is completely open but a goal for the visitors and you would fancy them to see it out.

Although Real have the vastly superior record in this competition, Atletico will take confidence from their record at home with their local rivals. Only twice in the last decade have Real Madrid won a match at the home of Atletico. Although they only need a draw, rather than a win, we should be in for a thrilling and tense contest which will no doubt have plenty of talking points.

PSV 1-7 Arsenal

Arsenal v PSV Match Betting

We might be only halfway through this two-legged tie yet fans and pundits alike think it is already completely over. It is hard to argue with that assessment either as PSV have no realistic chance of salvaging a six-goal deficit. Their defeat was a record-breaking night as it was the biggest defeat for a home team in the knockout stages of the Champions League.

Seeing Arsenal win so comfortably may have been expected had they been at full strength but they came into the clash short of attacking options. Despite this, some clinical finishing saw them score seven from an xG of just 1.97. Although the scoreline flattered the visitors, who were also lucky not to have Myles Lewis-Skelly sent off, this tie is now only about avoiding further embarrassment for PSV.

Dortmund 1-1 Lille

Lille v Borussia Dortmund Qualification Betting

This is a very finely poised clash and one that both sides will back themselves to progress from following a first-leg stalemate. Although a draw was a disappointing outcome for Dortmund, they did not deserve any more from the match. The German outfit simply had no cutting edge, despite their first-half superiority, and could only muster 0.26 xG.

The good news for Dortmund fans is that their side looked excellent in their last Champions League away fixture, the 3-0 play-off win over Sporting Lisbon. Additionally, they have scored at least once in their last 10 away matches in the competition. Less positive is that Lille boast a strong home record despite recent defeats to Dunkerque and Le Havre.

Feyenoord 0-2 Inter Milan

Inter Milan v Feyenoord Match Betting

To have any chance of dumping Inter out of the Champions League on Tuesday, Feyenoord will need to score at least twice. This in itself is already a monumental task given what a solid defence Simone Inzaghi has built. So far in this competition, the Serie A outfit have conceded just one goal from nine matches.

To make matters worse for Feyenoord, they approach this game winless in their last six clashes on the road, scoring just four times in this period. There is almost nothing to suggest that the Rotterdam-based side can turn this around so do not expect any sort of miracle in Milan.

Bayern Munich 3-0 Bayer Leverkusen

Bayer Leverkusen v Bayern Munich Qualification Betting

Although both clashes between these two teams in the Bundesliga ended as a draw, on both occasions the home team was the dominant side. So, to see the Bavarians win this clash was not a big surprise but few were expecting a 3-0 scoreline. The result did not flatter Bayern either, who perhaps should have scored more on the night.

Leverkusen were simply never in the match and they did not help themselves. Nordi Mukiele got himself set off with 30 minutes remaining and Edmond Tapsoba conceded a clumsy penalty. Expect Xabi Alonso’s side to give a drastically better account of themselves at home, but turning around the tie entirely will be a big ask.

Benfica 0-1 Barcelona

Barcelona v Benfica Qualification Betting

Despite playing most of the match with just 10 men, Barcelona managed to leave Portugal with a valuable one-goal advantage. This was probably more than they deserved but a combination of solid goalkeeping from Wojciech Szczesny and poor finishing saw the Eagles unable to find the back of the net.

This leaves last season’s Primeira Liga runners-up needing to secure a win on Tuesday, something much easier said than done. Assuming Barcelona avoid defeat to Osasuna this weekend, they will retain their unbeaten status in 2025. Benfica did give the Spaniards a scare during the 4-5 thriller earlier in the competition (in Portugal), but we are unlikely to see such drama this time.

PSG 0-1 Liverpool

Liverpool v PSG Qualification Betting

It is fair to see that Liverpool rode their luck in Paris. Not only did Ibrahima Konate somehow avoid a red card for a push on Bradley Barcola but they were reliant on an excellent goalkeeping display from Alisson to keep the visitors out. An extremely busy night for the Brazilian saw him make nine saves to hold onto his clean sheet.

Even a goalless draw would have felt cruel on PSG but the Reds, with only their second shot of the match, managed to secure a very undeserved victory. Despite being completely second best in Paris, Arne Slot’s men will be confident of seeing the tie out at Anfield having only lost one home game all season.