Image: Chun Long Cheung, flickr.
On Wednesday two things that have become highly predictable occurred: Alexander Isak scored and his goal, or in this case goals, helped Newcastle to victory. The Swedish striker and his club are on an incredible run right now and some are even daring to suggest a tilt at the title could be realistic.
Of course, since the Saudi takeover of the club, winning the Premier League and indeed the Champions League have always been the goals. But the new owners, and even the sometimes-delusional Geordie faithful knew it would be a slow process. Eddie Howe managed to guide the Magpies into the Champions League by finishing fourth in 2022/23 and that was a target achieved well ahead of schedule.
Since then they appeared to have regressed a little and finished seventh in the PL in 2023/24. After 16 games this season they were down in 12th and at various stages over the past year or so there have been at least some who have called for Howe to be replaced, feeling he had taken the team as far as he could. However, they have now won six Premier League clashes in a row and have leapt up the table into fourth place.
After 15 games they trailed Liverpool by a massive 16 points and anyone suggesting Howe’s men could overhaul the Reds would have been laughed all the way to Sunderland and quite probably back. However, the stunning form of Newcastle and a wobble from Arne Slot’s side means that the gap is now down to nine points. Could the Geordies really mount a title challenge in the remaining months of the campaign? If they do, it will be, like their earlier qualification for the Champions League, well ahead of the timeline envisaged by many, but their talismanic Swedish striker may just be giving the long-suffering North East faithful a reason to dream.
Red-Hot Isak Can’t Stop Scoring
Isak is deceptively tall, standing 6ft 4in, but is a brilliant all-round striker who can pretty much do everything. Comparing him to other players is tricky because he has so much to offer, but it is only relatively recently that he has really started to deliver on his immense potential. His 25 goals in 40 games for Newcastle last term was a very solid return and his best scoring campaign ever. However, in 2024/25 he has taken things to a whole new level.
Following his midweek brace against Wolves he now has 17 goals from 23 matches this term. Moreover, in the Premier League alone he has mustered an impressive 15 goals from 19 games, with a further five assists meaning he is averaging better than one goal involvement per game. His form at the start of the season was decent but he has now scored in each of his last eight league fixtures, bagging 11 goals in that time. Within that period he also scored against Arsenal in the EFL Cup semi final, so boasts 12 goals from his past nine matches.
Quite simply, he has been unplayable of late, with his pace, strength, trickery and finishing making him arguably the best player in the world right now. Newcastle bought him for a substantial fee of more than £60m in summer 2022 but he is probably worth double that now. Arsenal have long held an interest but were priced out in the summer and it would take a truly ludicrous bid to even make Newcastle consider selling him at any point, let alone during this winter window.
Can Isak Fire Newcastle into the Title Race?
Newcastle’s 3-0 win over Wolves, in which Anthony Gordon added to Isak’s brace, was Newcastle’s ninth in a row in all competitions. That equalled the club record and they will hope to make history when they host Bournemouth on Saturday by making it 10 consecutive victories. The way Isak is playing right now, we wouldn’t bet against them and neither would the bookies, who make Howe’s men odds-on to beat the Cherries and claim that special 10th win.
They trail Liverpool by nine points having played one game more, so they clearly have a lot of work to do, but could they reel the Reds in? Liverpool have now gone three games in a row without a win against PL opposition, their sole victory in the last four coming against Accrington Stanley. Slot’s side play Brentford on Saturday, after Newcastle’s match and the Bees are superb at home, so it is far from unlikely that we could see the Liverpool’s lead reduced again.
Of course, let’s not kid ourselves, Newcastle’s chances of winning the title this year are very slim. The kind of odds you will find for such an outcome at the time of writing are 40/1, with Forest deemed a more likely threat at 33/1. Liverpool are just 1/3 though, equating to a perceived chance of their success being around 75%. The Magpies are huge underdogs, fifth favourites, but they have form on their side and, as said, perhaps the best player in the world.
After their win over Wolves, Alan Shearer declared that his former side were indeed in the race for PL glory. Asked whether Liverpool’s advantage was too big he said “No it’s not”, adding that with their star striker fit “you’ve got a chance”. That said, Shearer is a died-in-the-wool Newcastle fan, so it is hardly the most impartial opinion.
Magpies a Long Shot
Indeed, the statisticians at Opta suggest that Newcastle have a 0.1% chance of going all the way. In other words, a one-in-a-thousand chance, which makes their odds of 40/1 look a little skinny to say the least. But we should remember, of course, that incredibly unlikely things occur weekly in the mad world of football, with Leicester’s title campaign and even Nottingham Forest’s current run sure to give Newcastle hope, if not belief.
There is a long way to go in this campaign but Liverpool’s advantage at the top is far from insurmountable from a historical perspective. In December 1997 Arsenal were 13 points behind Manchester United and went on to win the title, whilst in 1995/96 Newcastle themselves famously imploded, turning a 12-point lead over Man United after 23 games into a four-point deficit come the final standings.
Double-digit points leads have been lost six times in the history of the PL, so Newcastle, for now, should certainly aim high. If Isak stays fit, maintains this form and Liverpool’s stumble goes on a little longer, who knows what might happen?